Do a Pre-Mortem Before You Buy
A post-mortem asks why something failed, after it failed. A pre-mortem does the opposite. You imagine the failure now, and work backwards. It is simple, and it works because it gives you permission to say what you are quietly worried about.
How to do it in ten minutes
- Imagine it is three years from now, and this purchase was a mistake.
- Write five reasons why. Be specific: “I could not rent it”, “the handover was late”, “I needed the money back”, “the costs were higher than I counted”, “I did not understand the contract”.
- For each one, ask: how likely is it, and how much would it hurt?
- For the top two, write one thing you can do now to reduce the risk.
Why it helps
Before a purchase, everyone around you is excited, including you. The pre-mortem is the one moment where doubt is the goal. Many of the reasons you write will be questions you can answer this week, before you pay anything.
If the list is short
If you cannot think of five ways it could fail, you probably do not know the project well enough yet. That is a signal to learn more, not to feel reassured.
