Never Trust a Return Number You Haven’t Checked
Someone asks an AI tool whether a Dubai project is worth investing in. The answer comes back calm and confident: a 10% annual return. It sounds great. There is no source, no date, and no list of costs behind it.
That is the most dangerous kind of answer in property, because it sounds sure of itself. A number you did not check is not information. It is a guess wearing a suit.
Why a confident number is dangerous
In real estate, a return figure can come from very different places: actual rents and signed contracts, advertised prices, a brochure projection, or an AI summary of all of them. They can all produce the same headline number, and only one of them is worth building a decision on.
The risk is not that people are careless. The risk is that a clean number removes the questions you would normally ask.
Five checks before you rely on any return figure
- Source. Does it come from actual rents and documented contracts, or from advertised prices and projections?
- Date. Is the information still current? Property data goes stale quickly.
- Benchmark. Compare it with reliable market data for the same area and type of unit.
- Full cost. Add maintenance, property taxes, service charges and financing.
- Terms. Read the payment plan and the risks before you read the return.
Work out your own number
Gross yield is the yearly rent divided by the purchase price. Net yield is what you really keep:
Net yield = (yearly rent − yearly costs) ÷ (purchase price + buying costs)
Here is an example with made-up numbers, for learning only. Yearly rent 80,000. Yearly costs 12,000. Purchase price 1,000,000. Buying costs 50,000. Net yield = 68,000 ÷ 1,050,000, which is about 6.5%. A headline of 8% gross can become 6.5% net before you have even looked at vacancy.
Use AI to learn, not to decide
AI tools are good at helping you understand terms and compare options. They are not a source of truth. Ask them where a number comes from, then go and check it yourself. If you cannot trace a figure to a source and a date, treat it as an opinion.
And if you do not understand a number, do not put money behind it.
What is the first thing you check before you invest? Tell me, or ask me about a figure you are unsure of, on WhatsApp.
